Evaluate your consumer product business idea

If you’ve read the content on this site, you already understand the main pieces of a consumer product business.

But it’s one thing to understand the theory and another to apply it to your own idea.

That’s why I created this guide: to help you evaluate your product business idea.

This guide is based on the same framework I used when speaking with manufacturers, distributors and CPG founders and analyzing how product businesses actually work in practice.

What you’ll work through in the guide

The guide is structured around the key areas that determine whether a product business works.

1. Economics

Now that you understand how margins actually work, you’ll use a simple model to test whether your idea is viable before speaking to manufacturers. This is usually where most ideas break.

You’ll input key information like price and sales channel. The model then helps you estimate the maximum production cost your product can support.

Once you get quotes from manufacturers, you can quickly see whether your idea is viable.

screenshots from my excel model on evaluating a business idea
Sample from the model

2. Demand and positioning

You’ll use this section to think through why someone would buy your product and define:

  • who your customer is
  • what alternatives exist
  • how your product is different

Without clear differentiation, it’s very difficult to build a product business.

3. Manufacturing

This section covers:

  • manufacturing options
  • minimum order quantities
  • production constraints

You’ll understand what is realistic before committing to anything.

You’ll also get a simple template you can use to reach out to manufacturers and understand whether your product can be made, what it would cost, and what constraints exist.

excerpt of my manufacturer outreach template
Manufacturer template excerpt

4. Distribution

How will your product reach customers?

In this section you’ll compare e-commerce vs retail and understand how each one impacts your margins and growth so you can choose the right model.

5. Marketing

This section focuses on:

  • the difference between discovery and conversion
  • how early-stage brands actually get customers
  • what drives first purchases vs repeat purchases

What you get

  • a structured guide that connects all key parts of a product business
  • a margin calculator to test your idea
  • a manufacturer outreach template (email + questions) to help you speak with suppliers
  • examples that show how these decisions play out in practice

How to use it

This is not something you read once. You have the articles on this website for that.

This guide is a tool that can help you think through your idea. By the end, you should have a clear answer to one question: Does this idea actually make sense?

Who this is for

  • you have a product idea but don’t know where to start
  • you want to understand the numbers before committing
  • you want to avoid making expensive mistakes early

Who this is not for

  • experienced founders
  • people building digital businesses (not physical products)
  • people building outside consumer products

What this is not

This is not a step-by-step course on how to build a business. It’s a framework to decide whether you should build a business in the first place.

If you want to stop guessing and actually test your idea:

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